Why the oil price could soon rise

Last Updated: 1. März 2024By

It is said that renewable energies are on the rise in Germany. We ask provocatively: Is that really the case?

Take a look at this chart:

Chart from „Sicheres Geld“

You can see that in the last decades, oil demand almost doubled – despite all efforts to save and predictions that the end of the fossil age was imminent. Only because of the corona crisis there was a downturn. The expectation for 2024 is 103.5 million barrels. So the demand will still be high. At the same time, the major oil companies worldwide are investing less and less in expanding existing or developing new reserves. On the one hand, because the focus is increasingly shifting to renewable energies. On the other hand, because the oil price is relatively low.

Favorable timing for your entry The oil exploration is therefore neglected, as are the related stocks. This had a sustainable impact on the prices of oil stocks, which you could use to your advantage. Star investor Warren Buffett showed the way. He increased his stake in Occidental Petroleum („Oxy“) again this year. According to documents from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, now holds about 34 percent of Occidental Petroleum. The star investor is likely to expect a sharp increase in Oxy’s share prices in the course of an upcoming oil bull market.

Individual oil values are currently extremely cheap. This includes not only Oxy, but also Equinor or Petrobas, which convince with low valuations and high dividends. In addition, the entire energy sector is cheaply valued. In fact, no sector is currently more cheaply valued.

Seasonality speaks for rising prices For you as an investor, the exciting question now is whether an investment in the energy sector is worthwhile for you. An important guide for you is provided by seasonality.

Take a look at the following chart showing the seasonal trend of WTI crude oil prices:

Chart from „Sicheres Geld“

In contrast to usual charts, the seasonal chart does not depict the price over a certain period of time, but rather the average course of price movements of the crude oil price over 25 years depending on the season.

The exceptional year 2020, when the price collapsed due to the corona pandemic, has been excluded here. Exclusion makes sense because the average would otherwise be distorted. On the horizontal axis you can see the time of year, on the vertical axis the chart shows the price information. This allows you to see the seasonal trend of the crude oil price at a glance in the seasonal chart.

Prices usually rise from mid-February.

What you should do now You can read about developments around the oil price as well as other recommendations for lucrative profit opportunities in „Sicheres Geld“, a consulting service for critical investors who want active asset protection. Readers of the consulting service who followed the recommendations are invested in both Occidental Petroleum and Equinor or Petrobas. In other words, readers of „Sicheres Geld“ are already benefiting from attractive dividend yields and could soon also benefit from the rising oil price. A strategy that could also be interesting for you.