The ongoing near-conflict continues to keep us on edge. The Wall Street Journal writes in its current online edition: „Israel’s new calculation: Beat Hamas at any cost“. This strategy has been met with international criticism, as the number of civilian casualties is immense. At the same time, the risk of escalation in the Middle East and a two-front war increases should Iran intervene. This brings gold back into focus as a safe haven.

Keep your hands off leveraged certificates. However, if you look at the history of gold, there have certainly been reasons to stay away from gold. At least from leveraged certificates. Because with them, you will immediately get a big minus in your portfolio with every sharp correction. On the other hand, gold mining stocks are different.

Price breakout after the attacks of September 11th In the US, the Hamas attacks are increasingly being compared to the attacks of September 11th. In both countries, there has been a historically unique attack on their own territory with many casualties. Immediately after the attacks of September 11th, the gold price rose from 286 to almost 300 US$, only to then correct sharply again.

US labor market too strong for gold prices The game repeated itself in 2003. In the midst of the Iraq war, gold set off for a sharp correction, which had nothing to do with the war. The reason: the US economy grew faster than expected – despite the Iraq war. We have a similar situation at present: the US labor market has held up surprisingly well. There were more employed than expected. This puts pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. Even consumer prices have recently risen again.

These sayings should be known The higher the interest rates in the USA, the more pressure gold is under. After all, gold is now quoted in US dollars, and a strong US currency makes gold purchases from non-US dollar countries less attractive. But this indestructible market mechanism will turn into the opposite at the latest when there is a pause in interest rates and then the first interest rate cuts in 2024.

These are my gold targets: • 2023: 2,000 US$

• 2024: 2,450 US$

Conclusion: The price potential of gold is still limited this year. Next year you can expect prices above 2,450 US$. Some analysts even see gold prices at the end of the year already at 2,650 US$. That seems very ambitious to me. Because a lot depends on how US interest rates and the US dollar develop. My tip is clear: get into gold with every correction to be well positioned for 2024.