From my exchange with readers in my office hour and by e-mail, I know that some readers are currently becoming more uncertain because the year-end rally has not yet started „on time“. However, if a new war in the Middle East provides additional risks, this is not surprising. In addition, October is not usually a lucrative month for the Dow Jones over the long term.

Traditionally, the year-end rally really picks up speed in November and December (October average +0.30%, November +0.76%, December already +1.33% – best month of the year!). Therefore, the year-end rally is not off the table! I also see the overall situation much more positively. On the one hand, the interest-sensitive technology index Nasdaq 100 is performing much better so far than, for example, the standard values in the S&P 500 or in the Dow Jones Industrials.

Nasdaq 100 vs. Dow Jones Industrials: the speculative tech index is doing better

Source: stockcharts.com

Speculative markets remain in demand – a good sign On the other hand, the new rally in the equally volatile Bitcoin also shows me that speculative money is currently not withdrawing from the market. On the contrary, it is only now flowing back in.