Vonovia is a real estate company, which is symptomatic of what many of you are currently experiencing. The real estate market has weakened significantly, partly due to great concern – and yet most observers in the light of things know that the development will be better than the situation appears to be. In short: There is hope in the real estate market – for you (if you own real estate or even if you invest in funds) or even for real estate companies like Vonovia.

Vonovia: Targets near 30 Euros The recent figures are, as it rightly says, „operatively mediocre“. Briefly to remind you, what you may have already read from me. Vonovia will incur losses in the current year, but these are less than it seemed during the course of the year.

In short: The company’s losses should – on a net result – be around 5.8 billion euros. With a turnover of about 3.3 billion euros and a market value of almost exactly 20 billion euros, this is considerable. But already in the next year the losses should drop to less than 800 million euros. The company can even pay out dividends.

The dividend yield in the event that you would now invest will be 4.1%. Based on the distributions for the coming year, the dividend yield is estimated to be over 5%. That is decent. The company itself, as described above, stands for a small improvement in the real estate market.

Basic consideration: Where do people live? Vonovia not only has its own problems but also has to do with the framework conditions. Interest rates have risen. This increases financing costs (directly or simply by calculative interest on the capital invested) and reduces the scope of the customers, i.e. the tenants. In addition, the company suffers from higher market costs, raw materials have become more expensive, supply chains are brittle and the shortage of skilled workers also increases the costs for renovation or construction.

All this is known. But on the other hand, there is still an immense housing shortage in Germany. The government will not be able to achieve the planned 400,000 units of housing in this – and in my estimation also in the next – year. There will be significantly fewer than 300,000 units. At the same time, the demand is clearly increasing.

This is one of the few markets where demand cannot simply collapse. The government has also agreed on a less expensive version of the Building Energy Act (GEG) and will also reject the renovation proposals or regulations of the EU. The framework conditions for Vonovia will become significantly better. This is responsible for the relative strength in the market. Therefore, I still consider the company to be a positive anchor in the real estate market, even after the latest figures. Analysts are currently of the opinion that the share has a target price of almost 30 euros.