Seasonality suggests that crude oil prices will fall from October. This year’s chart seems to agree! If we look at the average decreases, we have already far exceeded our target.

On average, WTI loses around 10 percent from October to the end of the year. More precisely, we have dropped 10.81 percent from October 8th to December 23rd. At least that was the result of the last 10 years.

There were also 3 outliers: in 2017, 2019 and 2020, the prices rose by around 15 percent in the same period. Fluctuations are therefore programmed when crude oil goes to the end of the year.

WTI in the daily chart Here you can see how the prices have already pulled back from the September high. 15 US dollars went down. The last low is at 77.64 US dollars. There will probably be a counter movement up from there. Whether the prices continue to fall afterwards, we have to wait and see.

(Source: Tradingview.com)

If we also break the defense at 77.64 US dollars, the targets at 68 US dollars will be activated. There, the prices formed a multiple bottom from May to June, which thus provides a solid support.

When should we bet on rising oil prices again? Seasonality also has an opinion on this: the best time for oil bulls is from 7 February to 5 March! In this period, the prices have risen on average by 6.8 percent in the last 25 years! That is, extrapolated to the year, 150 percent! The increase in this period is enormous and does indeed occur regularly.

Those who want to plan a little more time can bet on rising oil prices from mid-January to the end of June. Here, the hit rate in the last 25 years is 72 percent. On average, there is an increase of 8.4 percent here.

Conclusion As you can see, crude oil is subject to significant seasonality. That there are outliers in between is part of it. Currently, we are experiencing the usual price decline towards the end of the year. However, seasonality does not reveal to us whether the prices will really fall by the end of December.

We have already traveled a great distance down. At this level, we could end the year and just push it aside from now on. Especially the support marked at 77.64 US dollars will probably be reached in the next few hours with WTI.

Here we will then see whether that was it for the bears or whether they would rather run towards 68 US dollars. After all, the short sellers will end their journey there this year. If the 68 really breaks, there is still some support at 65. After that, the 50 would come into focus. But we are at least one crisis away from that.