The backtest for 2023 is complete for my trading strategy with WTI in the 30-minute chart. In the end, I would have had 69 trades. 2 of them would have been closed at break-even. 46 winners and 21 losers. This is definitely a good foundation. Even if the system only runs half as well in 2024, we would still be in profit.

69 trades are a solid number for a backtest. More would be better. But the fact that there were almost 70 signals in one year is already valuable information. In the end, the numbers were too good to be true. But I’ll tell you anyway: From 1,000 euros, with a 3% risk per trade, you would have ended up with 11,843 euros. 1,084.27% profit. With a really good drawdown of only 8.94%.

That’s why I said earlier that the numbers can also be half as good in 2024. It would still be fun. Today, I will show you one of the trading rules that I use for this trading strategy. This will give you an idea of how you can also develop your own system.

WTI crude oil in the 30-minute chart I continue to use my 1plus3 indicator, where 1 indicator (Bull Bear Power Trend) forms the basis and 3 additional indicators must provide the same signal within 3 trading candles. Only then do I get a note in the chart whether it’s going long or short.

I have set different rules for the respective signals. Always based on the Fibonacci retracement, where I simply adjusted the display for my purposes. Ultimately, it’s always about a multiple of the signal candle. When I thought about why these strategies work so well, it became clear to me that I have already integrated the current market fluctuations into the system.

Only to a certain extent, but apparently that’s enough. Because all the points I need for a trade depend on the length of the signal candle. With WTI, this can be 0.19 US dollars once. Or once 0.91 US dollars. I don’t use shorter or longer candles.

With this basis, I then use the Fibonacci tool to draw a multiple of the signal candle. So I only drag the tool over the entire length of the candle.

In the example shown here, we have a short signal. The candle length is 0.31 US dollars in this case. The yellow indicator under the WTI chart shows me this. When I hover the mouse over the candle, I can see its length directly.

One of my self-created rules is: If the prices rise to „line 6“ of the Fibonacci tool after a short signal, I open a long trade there with a target of „line 11“ and a stop loss of „line 4“. You can see this in the screenshot.

(Source: Tradingview.com)

The trade went perfectly. Like about 69% of the trades in the backtest. I can’t say how many of those traded exactly this pattern. I estimate a maximum of 8.

Creating your own trading rules I proceeded by first looking at the chart without an idea of what I could trade. I just paid attention to the signals and remembered what the chart often did afterwards. The brain always wants to recognize patterns. This is not always helpful, but it is here.

I quickly had a system that worked with the first 3 short signals. But then it didn’t anymore. So I had to expand the system when the prices went in the other direction. In the end, I filtered out 3 rules for a short and a long signal, with which I have now backtested the year 2023. I also have 3 rules for a long signal.

Conclusion This is of course a bit of work and doesn’t just fall from the sky. You have to set up the rules first and then check them. Logically, my rules were not optimal from the beginning. I discarded rules in between and tried new ones and then fine-tuned them. In the end, I now have a trading system with which I can trust myself in the market with WTI in the 30-minute chart, because the backtest has achieved very solid results.