This is how profits are made on the GBP/JPY currency pair!

Last Updated: 6. November 2023By

This post is fully dedicated to seasonality. Many investors are not aware that there are different seasons in the stock market. This applies not only to stocks, but also to currency pairs.

In trading there are many ways to Rome. This is not only true there, but for all areas of life. To find the best time to enter a currency position, there are different possibilities. On the one hand, the chart technique, on the other hand, trading signals from indicators can be used. When opening a trade, I use both options. Additionally, I wait for the entry signal of an adapted strategy to be in the right place at the right time. In this post I present one of these strategies, in which the seasonality plays an important role.

With historical probabilities to stock market success… The basis for the entry and exit points is a statistical evaluation of long-term price data. A special software checks these data for seasonality, i.e. patterns that repeat themselves at certain times over the years. This results in a special, historically bullish or bearish time window for a long or short position for many currency pairs.

… and winning with a system! At the end of September 2023 I analyzed various currency pairs. The British pound against the Japanese yen caught my eye. GBP/JPY had already corrected for a few weeks and was slowly but steadily moving towards the ideal, seasonal entry time period to build a long position. According to the following seasonal evaluation, it should go up by 753 pips from October 3rd to December 12th of the year. At least that was the case 80% of the time in the last 10 years.

Figure 1: Seasonal Statistics for the GBP/JPY Currency Pair.

Source: Bopp Capital Market Studies

We put ourselves in the same day with an extremely low limit entry order at 179.00 points below the then traded price on the lookout. On 3 October the currency pair slipped exactly to this price level and we opened our long position.

Everything really fit together with this trade. Please take a look at the following daily chart where you can not only find the current daily candles, but also with a gray circle marked where we opened the position. This was exactly at the blue, slightly rising support line. Immediately afterwards, the currency pair rose sharply and after an hour we were already well in the black.

Figure 2: GBP/JPY price development with marked entry point. The daily chart is displayed.


After a sideways movement, the currency pair broke out to the upside last Friday. Even in the foreign exchange market, patience is sometimes required. This also applied to our GBP/JPY position. After its opening, the currency pair rose again and again to the area around 183 points, from where it corrected. We cautiously pulled the stop in this period by 100 pips into the profit.

Now the currency pair has broken out to a new high and one can say that the seasonality in the GBP/JPY currency pair is reliable again this year.

153% profit with this one position Currently we are 574 pips in the black. With a position size of 10,000 GBP this is currently 358 euros in profit! The bull market is intact. Near the previous yearly high, we want to close the position. Then we will realize around 458 euros in profit. On the required security of 320 euros, this is + 153% within two to three months.

Currently we have three positions open that are running similarly. In the #Depot we are ahead with over 800 euros. For us, the year-end rally in the depot has already started!