The Euro to US Dollar has been flirting with the mark of 1.10 in the last few days, but hasn’t been able to push any higher. One reason is that round marks are usually massive resistance points, since many traders have placed their sell orders there.

EUR/USD falls sharply at the weekend At the end of the week, the exchange rate closed at 1.0880 points, significantly lower than three days earlier. At the time of the rise above 1.10, everything looked very bullish.

In the chart, on the one hand the lower resistance zone was exceeded, on the other hand the upper blue trend channel boundary was also crossed upwards. Therefore, it was not excluded that the EUR/USD currency pair would move further into the next higher resistance zone from 1.1060. In the end, this was not the case.

Figure 1: Chart analysis of the Euro to US Dollar. The daily chart is shown.

Source: aktienscreener.com

This time the bears won The bears won this week and the price chart shows a retreat to near the blue 200-day line. This could at least be approached once in the next two weeks despite the slight increase seen on Friday.

Seasonally falling EUR/USD rates are expected until the end of the year Seasonality shows a slight decline until the end of the year. In the following figure, although fluctuations can be seen, the tendency of the plotted and calculated seasonal forecast line based on the data of the last 20 years points south for the next 30 days.

Figure 2: The seasonality of the Euro to US Dollar is shown for the next 30 days.

Source: Bopp Capital Market Studies

53% chance of a EUR/USD price drop in the upcoming calendar week According to the statistics, it should drop slightly next week anyway. The statistical evaluation of the last 44 years has shown that from Monday to Friday next week, the chances of a price drop are 53%. Based on the data of the last 52 weeks, Monday is the day when the currency pair could rise slightly again. The probability of a positive Monday is 61%. For all other weekdays, it should then go south with a probability of just over 50%.

Conclusion: With the bounce at the round mark of 1.10, the maximum upside potential seems to have been worked out for the time being. A retreat to the 200-day line sounds likely. There, opening a short-term long position with a potential target gain of just under 100 pips could be worthwhile.