Since the end of October, the DAX has gained more than 12 percent. This certainly fits the usual seasonality when the prices rise again after the summer. The current rally is indeed impressive. We are almost back at the all-time high! At the end of October, the DAX was still 2,000 points lower!

DAX in the daily chart Here you can see the V-recovery that went through the roof. On July 31st of this year we marked the new all-time high. We are now just short of 200 points. It should be achievable, one would think.

But nothing is guaranteed with the DAX. However, we are still above the former all-time high of 2021. That is definitely a positive sign. The prices are just shooting up today.

Remarkably, we are running towards overbought. To be exact, we have already arrived in this zone. But that means nothing for the rally. This can still go on.

Overbought only means that there have been many more buyers than sellers in the last few days and weeks. That’s just how it is with such a steep rally. Rarely has the RSI been so high as now. The last time we broke these values, the DAX was at 15,270 points. That was in April 2021.

After that, the RSI decreased while the prices rose to the former all-time high of 16,300 points. You see: A high in the RSI is by no means the end of the rally. This could still go on for months and the prices could rise another 800 points. The largest part of the rally was worked off at the RSI high.

RSI high in the spring of 2023 If we compare this to the high in the RSI at the beginning of this year. In mid-January, the DAX RSI marked a high. The DAX was then at 15,250 points. The actual high at 16,531 points only occurred 7.5 months later. Again 7 months. That is quite interesting.

If we translate this into the current prices and we are very likely to see the RSI high soon, we could experience the high in the DAX in June 2024. That would be another 7 months from today’s point of view. Afterwards, the prices would have to fall significantly if the pattern continues.

That the prices usually give way in summer is known. This year was an exception. Here the prices only fell between August and the end of October.

Conclusion The DAX behaves according to the usual patterns in the RSI. New all-time highs are currently likely in the coming months. It is almost certain that we will soon see the high in the RSI and the buying pressure will decrease again. The prices in the DAX can still rise for months.