Despite various crises, the stock markets have boomed in recent years. The entire financial world was in a sugar rush. Stimulus programs from politicians and loose monetary policies led to enormous growth. This can be advantageous, but it can also lead to dangerous bubbles.

Nevertheless, in 2023, both the stock and bond markets performed well.

However, this year we may pay the price. According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, investment bank JP Morgan is looking skeptically at the year 2024. The focus is on the consumption behavior of Americans. In the US, private consumption plays an extremely important role, accounting for around two-thirds of the economy. In addition, US demand is responsible for approximately 25% of the total global economic output.

Savings surplus soon depleted Although the inflation rate in the US was over six percent and experts warned of an economic slowdown, US citizens looked to the future with ease. They continued to live their lives as usual. Despite the high prices, consumption remained high, which affected savings.

While people in Germany held onto their money, Americans happily continued to spend it. Savings melted away like snow in the sun and will be depleted this year. „The tailwind that consumption provided in the US is running out,“ explains JP Morgan’s capital market expert Tilman Galler on FAZ Online. The days of carefree spending in the US seem to be numbered.

In principle, there is still a small hope that things could turn out better than expected. The relatively low oil price could continue to keep inflation in check, even if central banks do not raise interest rates this year or even lower them. With falling interest rates, private households could increase their credit rates again. This has often been the case in the past and could encourage Americans to continue buying – but this time on credit and not with their savings.

How to set the right investment strategy for 2024 You should definitely take into account the possible end of the sugar rush in your investment strategy. Large companies that have a good grip on their respective markets or stocks of large insurers that are independent of US household consumption are now recommended. Defensive values, such as utilities, or high-dividend stocks, as well as investment-grade corporate bonds, are also among these recommendations.

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