The enthusiasm was high when the DAX briefly reached a new all-time high in December and even climbed above the 17,000 point mark. But since the beginning of the year, the leading index has not really taken off – the start of the stock market year 2024 was rather subdued after the end-of-year rally.

Because so far, there is simply not much that could give the DAX – or the often tactically leading US markets – significant momentum. This will change in the coming days and weeks. Whether the DAX will be able to attack the 17,000 point mark again soon remains to be seen.

DAX: Inflation and interest rates decide – once again Many investors are eagerly awaiting this afternoon. In the USA, inflation figures for the month of December will be published – from an investor’s point of view, this is probably the most important date in 2024 so far. It is quite possible that the US indices and therefore also the DAX will move directly after the data is released.

In addition to data on the labor market, inflation figures are the decisive indicator for the Fed’s future monetary policy. The Fed’s interest rate policy has been the most important driver and also brake for the stock markets in recent months and years. This is unlikely to change in 2024.

What can be expected for the DAX now? At the end of October 2023, the sentiment suddenly changed: the markets were hopeful about possible interest rate cuts by the Fed in the first half of 2024. The following end-of-year rally – the DAX gained about 14 percent in just 2 months – was impressive and a lot of optimism is already priced in.

Today’s inflation data and the likely reaction of the US central bank is a first test for the optimists of recent weeks. Will there really be interest rate cuts in the coming months? Investors should be prepared for possible disappointments. Short-term setbacks are also possible.

Monetary policy is likely to remain the dominant theme. In addition, the markets are also looking at the economy and companies. And tomorrow, the first earnings season of 2024 will begin. Traditionally, the US major banks will kick off the round of figures – the DAX companies will only come into focus later.