Oil prices are getting more expensive. This is not my claim, but rather the seasonality. Looking at the past 9 years, WTI prices have increased by an average of 7.63 percent between February 9th and March 5th. The median results are at 6.32 percent.

However, it only went up in 2/3 of the cases. 3 years were negative during this period: 2015, 2017, and 2020. We could exclude the corona year here – after all, WTI prices fell by almost 8 percent between February 9th and March 5th.

If we were to remove the exceptional situation of 2020 from the statistics, we would have an average price increase of 9.75 percent for US crude oil in these 4 weeks. That sounds better again.

However, if we take the year 2013 into account again – where prices fell by almost 7 percent – we end up with an average of 7.18 percent and a median of 4.55 percent. We get similar values when we look at the last 33 years.

This period is as good as the rest of the year is bad! That’s actually quite crazy! I am shown a median value of 4.62 percent over the past 33 years. At the same time, I see that the average loss is 4.66 percent if we look at the rest of the year outside of our marked zone.

In the coming 4 weeks, prices for WTI crude oil will rise as strong as they fall for the entire rest of the year. 4 weeks up, 48 weeks down. Of course, the oil price does not follow such a simple pattern. Nevertheless, it is interesting to see how bullish the next few weeks have been in the past.

Usually, there were 2 consecutive years in which the price rose. Only once were there 4 in a row. We are currently in the 4th year – are we confirming the exception once again?

WTI seasonality on an annual basis Here you can see the mentioned period marked. The pale rest of the year stands at a terrible -18.57 percent from the perspective of the last 10 years. The trend is clearly towards rising oil prices. Especially in the next 4 weeks.

(Source: Seasonax.com) But that’s not all. We have to make the jump at the right time. In the chart, you can clearly see that after the usual bullish phase until the end of March, prices then drop steeply again!

Here we can turn the tables. In this phase of losses, the oil price falls by an average of 12.5 percent! And now for the icing on the cake: If we take the rest of the year outside of this period of falling prices, the price is even up by 1.18 percent!

Crude oil: What goes up must come down If we now experience a typical year in WTI, prices will rise significantly over the next few weeks, only to then fall drastically. Of course, it is unlikely that it will happen exactly like this. There are always some deviations, even if prices follow the averages of the past years. We can see this just by looking at the fact that we already reached the first annual high on January 29th. According to the average, prices would rather move sideways at this point.

We’ll see how it goes this year. I have put a knock-out certificate in my portfolio with a single-digit leverage and a knock-out below the low of December 2023 at 68 US dollars. I will sell it at the latest on March 5th.