NVIDIA: Hot Air or Mega-Trend?

Last Updated: 5. Februar 2024By

AI everywhere you look. Artificial Intelligence is still on the rise. So it’s no surprise that the company profiting significantly from this trend, NVIDIA, is also continuing to grow.

The graphics card chips are used to power Artificial Intelligence. Facebook alone will pay NVIDIA one billion US dollars. The Metaverse needs graphic power and AI. NVIDIA is soon to reach its next crazy target.

NVIDIA in the daily chart The trend in 2022 was absolutely terrifying. Prices plunged from $346 to $108. But then the AI rocket ignited. At the beginning of last year, the trend was enormous and it has not stopped since.

Here in the chart, you can see the Fibonacci projection. This involves taking the last major movement and calculating the extensions from it. In our case, we are using the 161.8 percent extension. NVIDIA has already reached this target. Next up is the 261.8 percent extension.

(Source: Tradingview.com) Therefore, the next big target is clear: sales will start again at $732. Of course, only if it reaches that point. You and I will not be the only market participants who have this on their radar now. That’s why it’s always interesting to see how much the prices often slow down on the way there.

Profit-taking starts earlier. After all, we never have a guarantee that prices will actually reach that level. Just because it looks pretty and symmetrical in the chart… Well, the 161.8 percent target was obviously recognized by the market. So it carries weight and increases the chances of hitting the 261.8 percent target as well.

What happens at $732? The prices heated up thanks to AI. Really hot, in fact. It’s understandable that there are now more voices warning of a bursting bubble in this sector. That’s normal and understandable.

However, anyone who has been in the stock market for a while knows the game: a bubble can still grow much bigger. You think it has to stop now. And then the thing still inflates even more. You can’t think fundamentally in situations like this. It’s pure emotion and hype. As exaggerated as a rally may seem, the market is always right.

Sure, NVIDIA will eventually come back down. The zone around $732 is perfect for that. Eventually, all companies like Meta will have made their major investments in NVIDIA and then revenue will decrease. Probably. If we compare this to Tesla, it’s similar.

Between June 2019 and November 2021, Tesla rose 3,400 percent. Those highs at prices around $400 are now a thing of the past. Today, the stock is trading at less than half that.

If we reach $732 soon, NVIDIA would have risen 2,250 percent since December 2018. At the 361.8 percent extension and $970, we would have almost reached 3,000 percent. Unbelievable, but still not quite at the level of Tesla’s rally.

It’s always nice to have these comparisons. Then, what seemed unimaginable at first appears to just be a story repeating itself, and it’s not quite as surprising anymore. Or at least, a little less crazy.