New Stock Market Year: Will 2024 be as Successful as 2023?

Last Updated: 2. Januar 2024By

At the beginning of the year, predictions are being made about how the stock market could perform in 2024.

Most of the time, the result is that things turn out differently than everyone thought. For example, a year ago, hardly anyone expected that the DAX would reach new all-time highs and close near the 17,000-point mark.

Nevertheless, 2023 was a successful year for the stock market – especially for investors who had invested early in megatrends such as artificial intelligence.

In our yield portfolio with stable megatrend stocks, we achieved a performance of around +20% in 2023, and in our leveraged million portfolio, we gained over +40%.

US election years usually have atypical seasonal patterns. Now, of course, everyone is wondering: How will the new year be for the stock market? Will it be as successful as 2023 or another difficult year like 2022?

I will give my readers at Lehne’s MegaTrends a detailed outlook on the new year next Tuesday, January 9, 2024 at 6 pm in a 1-hour live support webinar.

But one aspect I can already highlight is that 2024 is a US election year, and such years usually have atypical seasonal patterns. This is because the incumbent president usually tries to stimulate the economy before the election to gain an advantage for themselves or their party.

The summer slump often comes later. For example, if we look at the S&P 500 since 1960, it typically experiences a weak start in the first few months of a US election year and reaches its low point in March.

After that, there is often a strong stock market phase that lasts until the end of September – meaning the typical summer slump is shifted.

This also applies in a similar form to the DAX. It also reaches a seasonal low in March in US election years and typically rises during the summer months until mid-September.

After a one-month break between late September and late October, the indices usually continue to rise and end the election year at yearly highs.

Don’t lose sight of the current environment. This seasonal pattern, typical for US election years, would also fit well with the current environment. After all, many indices are now overheated after the strong end-of-year rally and are in need of a break, which could last longer than most investors anticipate.

Once this is overcome, economic stimulus measures from US President Biden and megatrends like artificial intelligence could boost stock prices and lead to a nice rally until late summer.

But as always in the stock market, all analysis methods only provide us with probabilities. This also applies to seasonal patterns.

We can keep them in mind, but we must adjust our market opinion daily to the current circumstances.