Is the crypto winter over?

Last Updated: 17. November 2023By

People are already talking about the crypto spring. Not entirely without reason: since the Bitcoin ETF has been given the go-ahead, not only has the largest cryptocurrency awoken from its winter sleep. Bitcoin has risen by 34 percent since October, Ether by 25 percent – also 34 percent last week. Solana has risen by 164 percent since October, Matic by 65 percent, and BNB, due to numerous problems, by only 18 percent.

Looking at the gaming sector, we see an increase of 123 percent in Vulcan Forged. The APE-Coin of the Bored Ape Yacht Club has risen from its low of 1 US dollar by 35 percent. Speaking of the supposed metaverse, the MANA coin of Decentraland has gained 48 percent, as has the Sandbox’s SAND coin. The two seem to run parallel.

Netvrk was the outlier here: prices have shot up by 400 percent since October! Even finished games like Chain Guardians went up by 200 percent. Even Illuvium doubled.

Movement is coming to the marketplaces. The NFT marketplace Immutable X has seen its IMX coin double in price. LooksRare, on the other hand, has lagged behind, with only an increase of 35 percent.

Wherever you look, everything has been going up since October, including MOVR from Moonriver Network on Kusama. MOVR is now at around 5 US dollars. Its all-time high was almost 500 US dollars! If it can just get back to those highs, we’ll have seen a hundredfold increase!

Bitcoin Dominance in the Daily Chart. Why the smaller coins have risen can also be seen here: of course, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF has certainly already drawn funds into the market. Bitcoin has been able to increase its market leadership since October.

But then in November, exactly the opposite happened. Part of the capital was reallocated into smaller coins. That’s the usual cycle. It offers much bigger swings in the altcoins in a real bear market.

But it will still be about five months until the Bitcoin Halving. It usually gets interesting about two months before. So what we have seen so far cannot yet be the actual rally. An early start? Sure. But it could just as well be that the referee blows the whistle and the coins fall sharply again.

The decisive factor remains Bitcoin Dominance. You can see the target zone above right. I have drawn the colored box between 58 and 63.5 percent. Bitcoin Dominance should be somewhere in this range as we approach the Halving and trigger the next rally. The next few months will surely turn the prices upside down.