At the beginning of the year, I made a long-term forecast for 2024, which pointed to a price range of $2,766 per ounce. However, not much has happened since then. Rather, the commodity has been moving in a tight range above the round mark of $2,000 back and forth. Therefore, there are many indications that the resistance range shown in the following daily chart graph between $2,051 and $2,074 will soon be exceeded.

Figure 1: Chart analysis of the ounce of gold in US dollars. The daily chart is displayed.

Source: aktienscreener.com

False breakout downwards … One reason for this assessment is the false signal on the downside, after the green support line inserted in the graph was briefly undercut. On one day, the precious metal slipped below this mark, then rose significantly from the daily low, and the following day began the upward movement that lasted until the new year and then turned into a sideways trend.

… is usually resolved upwards! In conclusion of this sideways trend, however, the probability is very high that the ounce of gold will exceed this range and break out to a new all-time high. False breakouts are considered good indications in technical analysis that a similar movement is coming on the opposite side, and in this case, it would be upwards.

Such a movement could lead up to $2,300. Then further profit-taking, accompanied by another sideways trend – possibly at a high level – is likely to set in.

Conclusion: $2,766 according to my long-term analysis from the beginning of the year is the big goal at this point. Now a smaller goal of $2,300 is added. This can be bet on if the precious metal breaks out upwards. However, such movements often occur after the weekend in the Asian market when the market is very thin.