„Everything is driven by gold, everything hangs on gold!“ This is the quote that Goethe has Gretchen say in „Faust“ and she is absolutely right. Everything revolves around this precious metal – for centuries, if not millennia. During this time, empires have risen and fallen. Currencies have been printed, devalued, and reissued, all to the detriment of the common people who ultimately footed the bill.

Gold has always been highly coveted, as it is universally exchangeable. The fact is: gold is not only beautiful and rare, it also retains its value. Today, a liter of beer at Oktoberfest paid for with gold costs barely more than it did 100 years ago. While the price in euros has increased tenfold, one still has to pay the same amount in gold as before.

Blood-soaked history Gold also made its mark during the conquest of America. The greed of the Spanish conquistadors, led by Francisco Pizarro in the 16th century, made headlines for the first time about this resource. On the other side of the Atlantic, in the Inca Empire, there was so much gold that the captured king, Atahualpa, wanted to buy his freedom with it. All the temples and treasuries of the empire were emptied to fill a 50 square meter room with the precious metal. Furnaces burned for 34 days – but in the end, the Spaniards looted around 180,000 kilograms of gold and 16 million kilograms of silver from the Incas. Pizarro had the Inca king executed, which led to a decrease in resistance from the Incas towards the conquerors.

Raiding now only takes place on the capital markets Nowadays, almost anyone can embark on their own raid on the international financial markets if they manage to correctly predict price movements, highs and lows, and act accordingly.

Gold can be traded through futures, options, or the well-known certificates and warrants in Germany. Another option is to order the precious metal as Xetra-Gold in Frankfurt and have it delivered if needed. With a foreign exchange account, not only currencies, but also gold and silver can be traded. For gold, the abbreviation is XAU/USD and for silver it is XAD/USD. Whether it is for the long or short-term, it is up to each individual. I believe that 2024 could be the year of the gold bulls.

The precious metal has regained popularity among investors in the last months of 2023, after correcting following a new historical all-time high of 2,087 US dollars in July 2020. This correction pushed the price down to around 1,600 US dollars over the course of the last two and a half years, before slowly and steadily rising again, reaching a breakout of over 2,150 US dollars two weeks ago. Since then, the precious metal has been trading in the range of the previous all-time high of 2,087 US dollars.

Below you can see the price trend of the gold futures since 1998, traded on the US futures exchange COMEX. This is a monthly chart so we can focus on the big picture.

Source: TAI-PAN.

The uptrend is intact… The gray uptrend line shows that the uptrend is intact. It is currently at 1,889 US dollars, with a slightly rising trend. I do not think this uptrend will be broken, as the round mark of 2,000 US dollars per ounce serves as technical support, as well as the blue 200-day line at 1,975 US dollars.

Rather, I see a sideways movement at a high level for 2 to 4 weeks, which could then be ended with a breakout to the upside.

…my mirror target is at 2,766 US dollars So you know where the precious metal is heading this year, I have made a mirror target forecast. The distance from the correction formed in the last three years to the previous all-time high was measured and projected upwards at the red horizontal line.

The target price is the range of 2,766 US dollars per ounce – perhaps this target will even be reached this year.

Conclusion: The 2,766 US dollars are only possible if gold manages to rise above 2,100 US dollars. On the way up, profit-taking is likely, supported by gold sales from mining companies securing the high precious metal price for sale.

On the way to my target price, there is also the round mark of 2,500 US dollars. I am convinced that the journey upwards will end in the range of this round, magical number.

It would not be surprising if the euro to US dollar soon starts to weaken again and moves towards parity. The seasonal low shows that this could be the direction from February to July.