We rarely start a year as turbulently as this one. First the earthquake and airplane crash in Japan. Now Franz Beckenbauer has also passed away. And while farmers protest in Germany, the French government resigns.

The farmers‘ rule of the DAX The news did not particularly interest the DAX. Much more important levers are being moved in the background. Nothing is as important as the first week in the DAX of each year. Because this often allows us to infer how the rest of the year might unfold.

If the DAX starts particularly strong in the first trading week, it usually ends with a good gain. On the other hand, if it goes down right at the start of the new year, this pattern tends to continue throughout the rest of the year. So what can we conclude after the first few days?

DAX in daily chart 8.1.24 Here you can see the Xetra exchange rates of the last 20 trading days. I have marked the starting signal for the new trading year. Today we are building the 5th candle. So far, the tendency is slightly negative, but almost on par with the starting prices.

(Source: Tradingview.com)

What immediately stands out: On the 1st trading day there were clear movements up and down. In the end, the prices closed with a slight minus. It was not until the 2nd trading day that there was more attention. It went down more than 250 points. At a time when it is often said that the important fund managers are still on winter vacation.

The echo followed promptly in the next few days. The DAX is fighting its way back up step by step. If we extrapolate this to the whole year, there could be significant downward fluctuations before we end up back where we started.

Speaking of unpopular governments, the comparison is obvious: a bit like the grand coalition. A little bit of fuss and ultimately just stagnation.

What about black gold? There was also a standstill on the roads today in many places. After farmers, truckers and craftsmen also joined in the protests. While some demonstrate against cancelled diesel subsidies, the price of crude oil continues to fall. Since the yearly high in September, prices have only gone one direction.

We will soon be back in the $68 range for WTI. There, US crude oil has turned upwards again the last 6 times in a row! This would also fit with seasonality. Usually, WTI prices tend to move sideways in January, before picking up in February and reaching their peak in early March. At least that’s the average of the last 10-15 years. We will take a closer look at this soon. For now, the prices can approach our buying zone even more.