Fake! This is how much the DAX all-time high is lying!

Last Updated: 16. Februar 2024By

Previously, we didn’t need artificial intelligence to spread fake news. We simply converted the DAX into a performance index and only looked at that. The DAX, as we treat it daily and as it is also compared internationally, is based on a fraud.

Our DAX is not the actual DAX. In the performance index, dividends are included. It’s actually tragic that even with this tool, we are letting ourselves fall behind the US. If we calculate the DAX the same way as all other indices do, you have to search for „DAX price index“. This DAX is then calculated cleanly and without any tricks.

DAX price index in a 3-month chart. One candle represents 3 months. I will tell you what the triangles are in a moment. The green line is the EMA 50, the weighted average of the last 50 3-month candles. The same game in red, but with 200. What is crucial here: in the year 2000, we had the high in the price index at 6,306 points. Just 24 years later, we are only 450 points higher. Impressively weak.

(Source: Tradingview.com) The performance index has reached a new all-time high today: 17,198 points. If we compare this with the chart here, you can see that the all-time high of the 4th quarter of 2021 has not yet been surpassed.

Engulfing candles in a 3-month chart These are the triangles in the chart. I created an indicator that combines EMAs and signals for engulfing candles. It shows us when a candle completely encloses the body of the previous one. This saves your eyes from having to find everything yourself.

I programmed this indicator today for a trading strategy in the 1-minute chart in the DAX and then wanted to see if it has any meaning in a 3-month chart. And behold: it has none at all.

We get a red signal for a bullish engulfing at the low in 2003. But this red candle, which encloses the previous one, is also the bottom after the dot-com crash.

After that, we get a red signal in the spring of 2010. The prices then rise again. The first green signal appears in the summer of 2012 – and from then on, it goes up as well. This pattern continues.

Three signals in a row between summer and winter 2021 are particularly meaningless. Red Green Red and then the prices go down.

Conclusion According to the price index, Germany is at the economic level of 2000 – at least the largest companies in the country are. The all-time high in the DAX performance index can tell us whatever it wants. While the price index has only risen by 7% since the high in early 2000, the S&P 500 has shot up by 224% in the same period!

Another comparison. The 2007-2009 debt crisis is often used as an example to show how well the US has positioned its financial system since then. Let’s ignore the national debt for now and only look at the indices. From the low in 2009, the S&P 500 has increased by 657% to date. The price index has only increased by 199%. The US wins by a factor of 3.5.

A slightly positive note to end with: the FTSE, the British leading index with the top 100 companies, has only risen by 124% since the low in 2009. Well, Brexit certainly didn’t help, but at least we are not in first place in the competition for the weakest industrial development of the last 15 years.